For Beijing, Taiwan is a perpetual headache, the pain of which only increases at election time. But whoever wins the presidential election, the Taiwan question will not go away because most Taiwanese are opposed to forsaking their political identity.
Beijing, on the other hand, insists that Taiwan is simply a renegade province and must be unified with the motherland by persuasion, coercion or by force, if necessary. It fears Taiwan becoming independent. If that were to happen, Beijing may well seek to bring about forcible unification.
Indeed, in 1996, when Taiwan held its first direct presidential election, China did stage a dramatic show of force in the Taiwan Strait to emphasize its intentions. At the time, Beijing regarded the holding of a presidential election as a move towards eventual separatism.
But the massive show of force didn't work. It galvanized the US into moving two of its aircraft carriers into the region to deter China. The presidential election went ahead. And former president Lee Teng-hui (
In 2000, Beijing again warned of dire consequences to prevent the election of Chen Shui-bian (
This time around Beijing is worried all over again. Chen appears committed, if re-elected, to push for a new constitution.
But Beijing is not making it easy for political moderates in Taiwan. For instance, its recent moves to silence proponents of democratic liberalism in Hong Kong by threatening to abandon the "one country, two systems" formula will only make Taiwanese more nervous.
China has been trying to lure Taiwan with the Hong Kong autonomy model. But seven years after regaining the territory from the UK, it is already talking of reviewing the 50-year autonomy agreement. Yet China appears unconcerned about the impact of this on Taiwan.
Beijing apparently hopes that "peaceful" unification will result from a progressive loss of internal cohesion and unity within Taiwan. For instance, Taiwan's business class is keen to expand investment and marketing opportunities in a growing Chinese economy. And its low labor costs and industrial stability make it a very competitive base for international exports.
As a result, powerful economic interests in Taiwan tend to advocate greater economic integration with China by neutralizing political issues.
At the popular level, even though most people embrace a Taiwanese identity, they are not unhappy with their country's ambiguous status of a de facto sovereign nation. They are concerned, though, when Beijing starts pointing missiles across the Taiwan Strait.
Interestingly, China's bellicosity has been muted lately. Beijing believes that the tide is turning in its favor. According to Current Events Report, a Communist Party publication, "we have basically contained the overt threat of Taiwanese independence since [President] Chen took office, avoiding a worst-case scenario
and maintaining the status of Taiwan as part of China."
It also believes that "the balance of power in the [Taiwan] Strait continues to shift in our favor."
Beijing was also heartened by an implied rebuke of Taiwan in December from US President George W. Bush, who cautioned Chen against unilateral decisions "that change the status quo."
In the circumstances, Beijing is probably satisfied with the status quo. It hopes that unification will follow in due course, dictated by the logic of China's growing economy and Taiwan's need to be part of it.
Even though Taiwan is a democratic entity in its own right and a successful economy, its security is ultimately underwritten by the US. For instance, the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act requires the US "to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan."
Under the Bush administration, there has been a progressive cementing of defense ties between the US and Taiwan, notwithstanding Beijing's displeasure. It was Bush who said that the US would defend Taiwan with "whatever it takes."
Indeed, Washington is keen
to sell billions of US dollars of advanced weaponry to Taiwan to defend against a sudden Chinese attack. But Taipei is less than enthusiastic about spending all that money. Besides, it doesn't want Washington to become complacent about Taiwan's defense capability. It would rather have the US on the scene sooner, rather than later, in case of military conflict.
If Beijing were only contending with Taipei, it would have annexed Taiwan much earlier. But it will have to contend with Washington if it were to use force. In the past it sought to test US resolve but didn't find it wanting. The signs so far from growing US-Taiwan defense ties and US strategic interests are that Washington will stand by its commitment.
But over-stretched as it is in Iraq and Afghanistan, and needing China's political support on terrorism and North Korea, the US could do without another military front. It is, therefore, not surprising that Washington is cautioning Taipei and urging it not to change the status quo. It doesn't want Beijing provoked into any rash military adventure.
At the same time, preoccupied as China is with its economic growth to become another superpower, it is likely to play a waiting game on Taiwan, believing that time is on its side. It probably hopes that the US other commitments will wear it down over a period of time, thus enabling China to step into the resulting vacuum by default.
In this scenario, Taiwan's fractious polity and internal disunity will do the rest, with people on the island reading the writing on the wall. Even a powerful US might not be able to salvage the situation in the event of an internal collapse.
But there is another scenario, which is that China could collapse before Taiwan does. Its communist regime is a superstructure built on political quicksand without any popular legitimacy. When the fall comes, like it did for the Soviet Union, there might not be any alternative institutional framework to fall back on.
Sushil Seth is a freelance writer based in Sydney.
The conflict in the Middle East has been disrupting financial markets, raising concerns about rising inflationary pressures and global economic growth. One market that some investors are particularly worried about has not been heavily covered in the news: the private credit market. Even before the joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, global capital markets had faced growing structural pressure — the deteriorating funding conditions in the private credit market. The private credit market is where companies borrow funds directly from nonbank financial institutions such as asset management companies, insurance companies and private lending platforms. Its popularity has risen since
On March 22, 2023, at the close of their meeting in Moscow, media microphones were allowed to record Chinese Communist Party (CCP) dictator Xi Jinping (習近平) telling Russia’s dictator Vladimir Putin, “Right now there are changes — the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years — and we are the ones driving these changes together.” Widely read as Xi’s oath to create a China-Russia-dominated world order, it can be considered a high point for the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea (CRINK) informal alliance, which also included the dictatorships of Venezuela and Cuba. China enables and assists Russia’s war against Ukraine and North Korea’s
An article published in the Dec. 12, 1949, edition of the Central Daily News (中央日報) bore a headline with the intimidating phrase: “You Cannot Escape.” The article was about the execution of seven “communist spies,” some say on the basis of forced confessions, at the end of the 713 Penghu Incident. Those were different times, born of political paranoia shortly after the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) relocated to Taiwan following defeat in China by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The phrase was a warning by the KMT regime to the local populace not to challenge its power or threaten national unity. The
The Iran war has exposed a fundamental vulnerability in the global energy system. The escalating confrontation between Iran, Israel and the US has begun to shake international energy markets, largely because Iran is disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway carries roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne oil, making it one of the most strategically sensitive energy corridors in the world. Even the possibility of disruption has triggered sharp volatility in global oil prices. The duration and scope of the conflict remain uncertain, with senior US officials offering contradictory signals about how long military operations might continue.
RSS