DRAM prices could start to dip next quarter as supply outgrows demand, ending nine straight quarters of growth, market researcher TrendForce Corp (集邦科技) forecast yesterday.
That bodes ill for the price outlook for next year, as many DRAM chipmakers continue to upgrade to 1X or 1Y process technologies, the Taipei-based researcher said.
Average DRAM prices will see a slight decline between 1 and 3 percent next quarter from this quarter, with PC DRAM chips, which account for 15 percent of overall DRAM consumption, falling as much as 4 percent due to inventory buildup among PC vendors, TrendForce said.
“PC DRAM chips usually serve as an indicator for other types of DRAM chips, as they are highly sensitive to supply-demand dynamics,” TrendForce said.
Chipmakers continue to add capacity for DRAM chips used in servers and mobile phones as supply constraints over the past quarters have been resolved and DRAM chips for servers could either see prices stabilize next quarter or a 2 percent decline from this quarter, TrendForce said.
Nanya Technology Corp (南亞科技) has said that it plans to ship a small volume of DRAM chips for server use by the end of this year.
Meanwhile, the supply of mobile DRAM chips is to also slightly increase next quarter as the world’s top three DRAM suppliers, Samsung Electronics Co, SK Hynix Inc and Micron Technology Inc, add capacity to meet demand.
However, mobile DRAM chip prices could remain flat next quarter, thanks to estimated growth of between 5 and 10 percent in smartphone sales as Apple Inc and Android smartphone vendors launch new products, TrendFroce said.
Prices for specialty DRAM chips, which are mostly used in consumer electronics, could drop as much as 3 percent next quarter from this quarter, as demand is likely to remain soft ahead of the traditional high season for consumer electronics, TrendForce said.
High set-top box inventories could pile more pressure on prices for specialty DRAM chips, it said.
SK Hynix is next year to start cranking out chips from a new fab in Wuxi in China’s Jiangsu Province, TrendForce said, adding that it would cause DRAM prices to plunge 15 to 25 percent from this year’s average.
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