The government’s business climate monitor last month flashed “green” for the fourth consecutive month, indicating that the economy is still on track for recovery, the National Development Council said yesterday.
“The indicators showed that the economy is recovering on a steady and firm pace,” Department of Economic Development Director Wu Ming-huei (吳明蕙) told a news conference.
The council’s monitoring indicators measure growth or decline in nine areas of the economy.
The total score of the monitoring indicators rose one point to 24 last month, driven by better exports and industrial production as global demand for next-generation consumer electronics devices picked up, Wu said.
Delayed shipments from September because of two typhoons also lent support to last month’s improved figures, she said.
The leading index, which forecasts economic conditions three to six months ahead, last month climbed 0.21 percent from September to 100.82, while the coincident index — which describes then-current economic conditions — edged up 1.09 percent to 104.05 last month, the data showed.
Both the leading index and coincident index rose for the eighth consecutive month, the report said.
Among the leading index series, the semiconductor industry’s book-to-ratio figure dropped from a month earlier, but the value of orders grew by a double-digit percentage year-on-year last month, Wu said.
Growth momentum is likely to sustain for the rest of this year on the back of demand for electronics ahead of the Christmas and Lunar New Year holidays, Wu said.
Exports this quarter are expected to outpace those from last quarter, Wu said, citing the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics’ (DGBAS) forecast released on Friday last week.
The DGBAS estimated exports would expand by 7.17 percent this quarter on robust global orders for electronics components.
The semiconductor industry’s increased expenditure on advanced technologies should help boost domestic investments, Wu said, adding that the government’s plans to strengthen infrastructure spending would also help.
“Overall, we are optimistic the indicators will remain ‘green’ for the remainder of the year,” Wu said.
However, Wu said uncertainty caused by US president-elect Donald Trump’s campaign pledges to raise trade barriers might pose a risk to Taiwan’s export-oriented economy.
Trump’s plans to expand infrastructure and cut taxes might benefit the US economy, but if the US implements measures aimed at trade protectionism it would have negative implications for Taiwan, Wu said.
The council also continues to monitor the European economy, following Britain’s vote to leave the EU in June, Wu added.
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