Yuanta-Polaris Research Institute (元大寶華綜合經濟研究院), a private think tank, yesterday trimmed Taiwan’s GDP forecast for this year and next year, citing the impact of austerity measures taken by governments around the world and decreasing private consumption in Taiwan.
The institute downgraded its economic forecast for Taiwan from 1.38 percent to 1.08 percent for this year, and cut next year’s forecast from 3.85 percent to 3.48 percent.
“The current economic condition can best be described as ‘the great malaise,’” institute president Liang Kuo-yuan (梁國源) said at a press conference.
Citing recent reports by the IMF, Liang said Europe and the US would continue implementing austerity measures, which are expected to decrease the momentum of global economic growth.
“Even if the US can solve its ‘fiscal cliff’ problem and the European debt crisis does not deteriorate, the global economic condition is still dire,” Liang said.
On the domestic economic front, private consumption is expected to be low because of a decline in disposable income, Liang said, citing the government’s plans to implement higher electricity rates and premium fees for the national health insurance system, as well as an overhaul of pension schemes and the implementation of capital gains tax on securities investment.
Accordting to the think tank’s estimates, private consumption growth will be 1.53 percent next year, down from its previous forecast of 3.1 percent. It also lowered this year’s private consumption forecast to growth to 1.23 percent from 1.53 percent.
Meanwhile, private investment is likely to contract next year because of lingering global economic uncertainties, with the institute forecasting only NT$239 (US$8.23 billion) billion in investment from the private sector next year, compared to NT$2 trillion this year.
On a positive note, the rate of inflation is likely to fall to 1.41 percent next year from 1.91 percent this year, the institute said. Both figures are lower than the institute’s previous estimates of 1.42 percent and 1.98 percent respectively.
“Food prices have been declining since September, and oil prices are not likely to rise in the near future because of rising oil production in the US,” Liang said.
To many, Tatu City on the outskirts of Nairobi looks like a success. The first city entirely built by a private company to be operational in east Africa, with about 25,000 people living and working there, it accounts for about two-thirds of all foreign investment in Kenya. Its low-tax status has attracted more than 100 businesses including Heineken, coffee brand Dormans, and the biggest call-center and cold-chain transport firms in the region. However, to some local politicians, Tatu City has looked more like a target for extortion. A parade of governors have demanded land worth millions of dollars in exchange
Hong Kong authorities ramped up sales of the local dollar as the greenback’s slide threatened the foreign-exchange peg. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) sold a record HK$60.5 billion (US$7.8 billion) of the city’s currency, according to an alert sent on its Bloomberg page yesterday in Asia, after it tested the upper end of its trading band. That added to the HK$56.1 billion of sales versus the greenback since Friday. The rapid intervention signals efforts from the city’s authorities to limit the local currency’s moves within its HK$7.75 to HK$7.85 per US dollar trading band. Heavy sales of the local dollar by
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s (TSMC, 台積電) revenue jumped 48 percent last month, underscoring how electronics firms scrambled to acquire essential components before global tariffs took effect. The main chipmaker for Apple Inc and Nvidia Corp reported monthly sales of NT$349.6 billion (US$11.6 billion). That compares with the average analysts’ estimate for a 38 percent rise in second-quarter revenue. US President Donald Trump’s trade war is prompting economists to retool GDP forecasts worldwide, casting doubt over the outlook for everything from iPhone demand to computing and datacenter construction. However, TSMC — a barometer for global tech spending given its central role in the
An Indonesian animated movie is smashing regional box office records and could be set for wider success as it prepares to open beyond the Southeast Asian archipelago’s silver screens. Jumbo — a film based on the adventures of main character, Don, a large orphaned Indonesian boy facing bullying at school — last month became the highest-grossing Southeast Asian animated film, raking in more than US$8 million. Released at the end of March to coincide with the Eid holidays after the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan, the movie has hit 8 million ticket sales, the third-highest in Indonesian cinema history, Film
RSS