The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) yesterday cut its GDP growth forecast for the nation this year from the 3.55 percent it forecast in April to 2.36 percent, due to the impact of near-zero growth in the second quarter because of global economic uncertainties.
The Taipei-based think tank’s latest forecast was higher than the 1.94 percent GDP growth estimated by Academia Sinica last week.
“Although economic momentum in the second quarter was weak, our overall economic outlook for this year is not that pessimistic [compared with Academia Sinica’s forecast],” CIER president Wu Chung-shu (吳中書) told a press conference.
Wu said the nation’s exports showed a contraction in the first six months due to the impact of various global economic uncertainties led by the eurozone’s debt crisis, further dragging down the GDP growth rate and the institute’s growth forecast.
However, the nation’s overall economic momentum for this year may not be as slow as during the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, Wu added.
The institute forecast GDP to grow just 0.18 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, worse than the 0.39 percent annual growth posted in the first quarter, an indication that the second quarter could be the bottom of this round of the economic cycle.
However, the economy in the second half of the year may rebound from the first half by rising 3.48 percent and 5.13 percent in the third and fourth quarters respectively, as exports recover from their slump, the institute said in its quarterly report.
The institute expects the annual growth of exports to reach 0.41 percent this year, with imports to slide 0.25 percent from a year earlier.
On the domestic demand front, private consumption is expected to rise 1.91 percent this year, while private investment may fall 2.23 percent, as most companies in Taiwan maintain a relatively conservative attitude on capital expenditure, the report said.
Since various domestic institutes have revised downward their latest forecasts for economic growth this year, it seems increasingly likely that the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) will follow suit and may cut its full-year growth forecast next Tuesday.
In May, the DGBAS estimated the nation’s economy would grow 3.03 percent this year.
TECH CLUSTER: The US company’s new office is in the Shalun Smart Green Energy Science City, a new AI industry base and cybersecurity hub in southern Taiwan US chip designer Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) yesterday launched an office in Tainan’s Gueiren District (歸仁), marking a significant milestone in the development of southern Taiwan’s artificial intelligence (AI) industry, the Tainan City Government said in a statement. AMD Taiwan general manager Vincent Chern (陳民皓) presided over the opening ceremony for the company’s new office at the Shalun Smart Green Energy Science City (沙崙智慧綠能科學城), a new AI industry base and cybersecurity hub in southern Taiwan. Facilities in the new office include an information processing center, and a research and development (R&D) center, the Tainan Economic Development Bureau said. The Ministry
ADVERSARIES: The new list includes 11 entities in China and one in Taiwan, which is a local branch of Chinese cloud computing firm Inspur Group The US added dozens of entities to a trade blacklist on Tuesday, the US Department of Commerce said, in part to disrupt Beijing’s artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced computing capabilities. The action affects 80 entities from countries including China, the United Arab Emirates and Iran, with the commerce department citing their “activities contrary to US national security and foreign policy.” Those added to the “entity list” are restricted from obtaining US items and technologies without government authorization. “We will not allow adversaries to exploit American technology to bolster their own militaries and threaten American lives,” US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said. The entities
Minister of Finance Chuang Tsui-yun (莊翠雲) yesterday told lawmakers that she “would not speculate,” but a “response plan” has been prepared in case Taiwan is targeted by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which are to be announced on Wednesday next week. The Trump administration, including US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, has said that much of the proposed reciprocal tariffs would focus on the 15 countries that have the highest trade surpluses with the US. Bessent has referred to those countries as the “dirty 15,” but has not named them. Last year, Taiwan’s US$73.9 billion trade surplus with the US
The Taipei International Cycle Show (Taipei Cycle) yesterday opened at the Taipei Nangang Exhibition Center, with the event’s organizer expecting a steady recovery in the industry this year following a tough last year. This year, 980 companies from 35 countries are participating in the annual bicycle trade show, showcasing technological breakthroughs and market development trends of the bicycle industry at 3,600 booths, the Taiwan External Trade Development Council (TAITRA, 外貿協會) said in a statement. Under the theme “Ride the Revolution,” the exhibition has attracted more than 3,500 international buyers from 80 countries to preregister for the four-day event, which is expected to
RSS