The nation’s leading indicators rebounded for the sixth straight month last month, evidence that the economy is bottoming out, the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) said yesterday.
However, recent rising crude oil prices will be a major source of uncertainty for both the global and Taiwanese economy, it said.
The leading indicator index, which is used to gauge the economic outlook for the near future, increased 0.9 percent from a month earlier to 130.1 points, the council said in its monthly report.
The index’s annualized six-month rate of change, which provides a more accurate forecast of the business cycle in the near term, climbed 1.3 percentage points to 5.5 percent last month from a month ago, marking six months of consecutive improvements, the report said.
“The upturn of leading indicators, which offers the outlook for the upcoming four to six months, showed the economy might bottom out in the first quarter,” Hung Jui-bin (洪瑞彬), director-general of the council’s economic research department, told a press conference.
The pace of decline in some domestic business indicators in finance and consumption moderated last month amid the eurozone’s improving debt problem and moderate economic recovery in the US, Hung said.
However, some indicators in trade and production — such as growth of exports and imports — remained weak, he added.
Meanwhile, recent rising crude oil prices and slowing growth in China this year might pose downside risks for the global economy this year, Hung said, adding that the government would carefully watch these uncertainties.
Overall, Hung said he expected the annualized growth of Taiwan’s economy to improve quarter-by-quarter this year, in line with current market consensus.
The coincident index slid 0.7 percent to 125.9 points last month from a month earlier, with its trend-adjusted index dropping 1.3 percent to 93.6, the council said.
The overall monitoring indicators flashed “blue” for the fourth straight month last month, with the total score of the indicators rising two points to 15 last month, the report’s data showed.
In related news, the consumer confidence index (CCI) rose for the third straight month this month, mainly on back of improving confidence on the local stock market, a National Central University survey showed yesterday.
The index inched up 1.53 points to 81.26 this month, according to the survey.
The CCI benchmark gauges public expectations about the stock market, household finances, durable goods, job opportunities, consumer prices and the economic outlook for the next six months.
This month’s survey — which polled 2,422 people over the age of 20 from March 19 to last Wednesday last week — showed increasing uncertainty over consumer prices, but improved sentiment about other sectors, the university’s Research Center for Taiwan Economic Development said.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) yesterday said that its investment plan in Arizona is going according to schedule, following a local media report claiming that the company is planning to break ground on its third wafer fab in the US in June. In a statement, TSMC said it does not comment on market speculation, but that its investments in Arizona are proceeding well. TSMC is investing more than US$65 billion in Arizona to build three advanced wafer fabs. The first one has started production using the 4-nanometer (nm) process, while the second one would start mass production using the
A TAIWAN DEAL: TSMC is in early talks to fully operate Intel’s US semiconductor factories in a deal first raised by Trump officials, but Intel’s interest is uncertain Broadcom Inc has had informal talks with its advisers about making a bid for Intel Corp’s chip-design and marketing business, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Nothing has been submitted to Intel and Broadcom could decide not to pursue a deal, according to the Journal. Bloomberg News earlier reported that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) is in early talks for a controlling stake in Intel’s factories at the request of officials at US President Donald Trump’s administration, as the president looks to boost US manufacturing and maintain the country’s leadership in critical technologies. Trump officials raised the
‘SILVER LINING’: Although the news caused TSMC to fall on the local market, an analyst said that as tariffs are not set to go into effect until April, there is still time for negotiations US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said that he would likely impose tariffs on semiconductor, automobile and pharmaceutical imports of about 25 percent, with an announcement coming as soon as April 2 in a move that would represent a dramatic widening of the US leader’s trade war. “I probably will tell you that on April 2, but it’ll be in the neighborhood of 25 percent,” Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago club when asked about his plan for auto tariffs. Asked about similar levies on pharmaceutical drugs and semiconductors, the president said that “it’ll be 25 percent and higher, and it’ll
CHIP BOOM: Revenue for the semiconductor industry is set to reach US$1 trillion by 2032, opening up opportunities for the chip pacakging and testing company, it said ASE Technology Holding Co (日月光投控), the world’s largest provider of outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) services, yesterday launched a new advanced manufacturing facility in Penang, Malaysia, aiming to meet growing demand for emerging technologies such as generative artificial intelligence (AI) applications. The US$300 million facility is a critical step in expanding ASE’s global footprint, offering an alternative for customers from the US, Europe, Japan, South Korea and China to assemble and test chips outside of Taiwan amid efforts to diversify supply chains. The plant, the company’s fifth in Malaysia, is part of a strategic expansion plan that would more than triple
RSS