The economy is expected to fall in the lower ranks of Asian economies next year, with a projected 4.8 percent GDP compared with an average GDP growth rate of 5.9 percent for Asia outside Japan, Credit Suisse said in its 2010 Asian economic forecast released on Saturday.
Although Taiwan will begin to escape an economic contraction next year, its recovery is lagging far behind neighboring countries, the Zurich-based financial services company said, adding that Taiwan’s economic growth for 2011 will be among the worst in Asia at 3.8 percent.
Tao Dong (陶冬), chief regional economist at Credit Suisse outside Japan, said that he remained upbeat about the macroeconomic performances in Asia next year. In particular, the strong momentum of China and other emerging countries is anticipated to drive economic growth in the region, he said.
Credit Suisse said that China would record the highest GDP growth rate throughout Asia next year, followed by India, Vietnam and Singapore.
The investment bank forecast that the Asian economy will grow an average 5.9 percent next year and 5.8 percent in 2011. The weighted economic growth rate is anticipated to be 7.6 percent in 2011 and 8.9 percent next year.
Meanwhile, UBS AG recently released its Asian economic outlook for next year, saying that Taiwan’s GDP would grow only 4.4 percent, the worst in Asia.
In terms of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Asian countries are expected to see a year-on-year growth of 4.5 percent next year.
Taiwan’s CPI, however, will only post a mild 1.9 percent increase, the Swiss bank said in a statement.
Vietnam will face the greatest inflationary pressure as its CPI is anticipated to reach as high as 9 percent, the bank said.
Chartered Bank Taiwan Ltd (渣打銀行) forecast that Asia will experience a V-shaped recovery as opposed to the L or U-shaped recovery in the West.
The bank forecast that Asian economies will average 7 percent growth in GDP next year, up from this year’s 4.5 percent, among which China and India will lead with an economic growth of 10 percent and 7.5 percent respectively, up from this year’s 8.5 percent and 6.8 percent, its chief economist Gerard Lyons said in a press statement released on Friday.
The global economy is expected to grow from this year’s 1.9 percent to next year’s 2.7 percent, he said.
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