Commodities slumped the most since July, led by a drop in crude oil and industrial metals, as Dubai’s attempt to reschedule its debt rattled investors and spurred a strengthening in the dollar.
The S&P GSCI index of 24 commodities fell as much as 4.2 percent, the biggest drop since July 29. The index, which didn’t price on Thursday because of the Thanksgiving Day holiday, traded 3.6 percent lower at 496.355 as of 11:17am in London. Gold fell the most since January and oil retreated to a six-week low.
The declines are “a correction reflecting the unfortunate timing of the Dubai news which spooked the markets,” Daniel Major, a London-based commodity analyst at RBS Global Banking and Markets, said by telephone. “The sharp rally in the dollar is also driving gold.”
Commodities, as measured by the S&P GSCI, jumped as much as 50 percent this year, amid the worst global recession since World War II. Copper and lead more than doubled and crude oil advanced as much as 82 percent as Chinese demand expanded and producers curbed supply. Investors are “chasing commodities” and there is a risk of bubbles emerging, Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the global financial crisis, said a week ago.
The US Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s value, rose as much as 1 percent, strengthening for a second consecutive day. A stronger dollar makes commodities denominated in the currency more expensive for those holding other monies. Some investors also buy commodities as a hedge against a weaker dollar.
Gold for immediate delivery lost as much 4.2 percent, the biggest intraday decline since Jan. 12. The metal traded at a record US$1,195.13 on Thursday and has advanced 32 percent this year, the best performance since 1979. Silver shed 3.6 percent to US$17.9975 an ounce.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, reached a record 1,134 tonnes in June. At the time, it exceeded Switzerland as the world’s sixth-largest gold holding.
“The fundamental reason for gold remains unchanged,” said Janet Kong, a commodity analyst at Goldman Sachs (Asia) LLC in Hong Kong. “This is a good pullback for people who want to have positions in it.”
Crude oil fell as much as 7.1 percent to US$72.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, where markets didn’t settle on Thursday because of the public holiday. That was the lowest compared with intraday prices since Oct. 12.
Lower-than-average volumes are being traded in commodity markets, RBS’ Major said.
“You can’t read too much into this,” he said.
Copper for delivery in three months fell 1.2 percent to US$6,738 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange, declining for a second day and paring its annual gain to 119 percent. Aluminum, nickel, zinc, tin and lead also dropped.
“Base metals are the commodity category with the highest correlation to equity markets and therefore suffered more than other commodity categories from the equity market sell-off,” Tobias Merath, head of commodities research at Credit Suisse in Zurich, wrote in an e-mailed report yesterday.
GEOPOLITICAL ISSUES? The economics ministry said that political factors should not affect supply chains linking global satellite firms and Taiwanese manufacturers Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX) asked Taiwanese suppliers to transfer manufacturing out of Taiwan, leading to some relocating portions of their supply chain, according to sources employed by and close to the equipment makers and corporate documents. A source at a company that is one of the numerous subcontractors that provide components for SpaceX’s Starlink satellite Internet products said that SpaceX asked their manufacturers to produce outside of Taiwan because of geopolitical risks, pushing at least one to move production to Vietnam. A second source who collaborates with Taiwanese satellite component makers in the nation said that suppliers were directly
Top Taiwanese officials yesterday moved to ease concern about the potential fallout of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, making a case that the technology restrictions promised by the former US president against China would outweigh the risks to the island. The prospect of Trump’s victory in this week’s election is a worry for Taipei given the Republican nominee in the past cast doubt over the US commitment to defend it from Beijing. But other policies championed by Trump toward China hold some appeal for Taiwan. National Development Council Minister Paul Liu (劉鏡清) described the proposed technology curbs as potentially having
EXPORT CONTROLS: US lawmakers have grown more concerned that the US Department of Commerce might not be aggressively enforcing its chip restrictions The US on Friday said it imposed a US$500,000 penalty on New York-based GlobalFoundries Inc, the world’s third-largest contract chipmaker, for shipping chips without authorization to an affiliate of blacklisted Chinese chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC, 中芯). The US Department of Commerce in a statement said GlobalFoundries sent 74 shipments worth US$17.1 million to SJ Semiconductor Corp (盛合晶微半導體), an affiliate of SMIC, without seeking a license. Both SMIC and SJ Semiconductor were added to the department’s trade restriction Entity List in 2020 over SMIC’s alleged ties to the Chinese military-industrial complex. SMIC has denied wrongdoing. Exports to firms on the list
TALENT FACTOR: The nation’s chip sector would be difficult to replace, but to maintain that advantage, Taiwan must retain skilled workers, an academic said A group of experts on Sunday called on Taiwan to strive to maintain its world-leading position in the semiconductor industry, with a US-China chip dispute expected to continue regardless of who becomes the next US president. Tamkang University Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies director Li Da-jung (李大中) said at a Taipei seminar on global semiconductor security that the relationship between the two superpowers would remain confrontational. There appears to be “no turning back” in US-China relations, as US presidential candidates US Vice President Kamala Harris and former US president Donald Trump are both expected to continue Washington’s hawkish stance
RSS