The nation’s exports have dropped by a steeper pace of nearly 30 percent last month because of a higher base last year, although the value probably showed a continual increase from a month earlier, analysts said yesterday.
Outbound shipments, which declined 24.4 percent to US$17.27 billion year-on-year in July, are expected to have contracted by more than 28 percent last month, as global trade remained sluggish, whereas export value was US$25.2 billion a year ago.
The Ministry of Finance is scheduled to release last month’s export data on Monday.
Cheng Cheng-mount (鄭貞茂), head economist at Citigroup Taiwan Inc, predicted custom-cleared exports amounted to US$18 billion last month, rising 4.65 percent from a month earlier but representing a 28.6 percent plunge from the same period last year.
“A higher base accounted for the deeper slump,” Cheng said by telephone. “It should not be taken as [a sign] the economy deteriorated.”
Demand from China, the nation’s largest trade partner, peaked in August last year when Beijing hosted the summer Olympic Games, and fell sharply from the next month onward because of the financial turmoil.
Cheng put imports at a decline of 36.4 percent to US$16 billion last month, leaving Taiwan with a trade surplus of US$2 billion.
The analyst voiced optimism that export value would show noticeable improvement this month and for the remainder of the year when the economy is expected to register modest growth.
“While visibility remains poor, some firms in the high-tech sector have increased capital spending in anticipation of rising demand,” Cheng said.
Jack Huang (黃蔭基), head of research at SinoPac Financial Holdings Co (永豐金控), echoed the upbeat sentiment.
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