An outbreak of avian influenza among people may cost China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, as much as US$87 billion, according to a study by the Asian Development Bank.
China, the second-biggest poultry-producing country, last week confirmed its first human fatalities from the H5N1 strain of bird flu. The disease, which has killed at least 67 people across Asia since December 2003, has caused farmers and animal health officials to slaughter more than 21 million birds in China this year.
Health authorities say human cases will climb as new outbreaks are reported among the country's 14.2 billion birds.
Human infections heighten concerns that the virus may mutate into a strain more easily passed between humans, leading to a pandemic that may kill millions.
"We need to be clear we're nowhere near a pandemic level, but we need to prepare and take precautionary measures," Asian Development Bank economist Chris Spohr said at a seminar sponsored by the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing.
The bank estimates the cost of any pandemic to China's economy at between US$28 billion and US$87 billion. That equates to between 1.7 percent and 5.3 percent of the country's GDP.
The cost of any pandemic on the economies in Asia outside Japan may range from US$113 billion to US$300 billion, depending on when health officials are able to contain the virus and how quickly investors are able to recover from the psychological shock.
As many as three-quarters of multinational companies are concerned about avian flu and have taken precautionary measures, including formulating crisis management plans, said Christian van der Walt, director of the International Medical SOS for the China region, citing a Sept. 20 survey conducted by the medical company.
"If bird flu were to reach epidemic levels, up to 20 percent of your workforce could be gone at any one time because they are sick or need to take care of family members," Van Der Walt said at the seminar.
Bird flu has infected at least 130 people in China, Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, the World Health Organization (WHO) said last Thursday. North Korea intensified quarantine controls and surveillance at borders, airports and port terminals, the official North Korean news agency said in a report yesterday, citing Kim Hyong-chol, a quarantine official.
"There is no need to panic," Henk Bekedam, the WHO's representative in China, said at the seminar in Beijing.
"The current virus is not easily transferable among humans, but we need to get ready. We have some time, but the time to get ready is now," he said.
Every company should begin forming crisis management committees and appoint a senior executive as the spokesman for the company during a crisis, said Scott Kronick, president of public relations firm Ogilvy Public Relations Worldwide in China, which is assisting companies with their emergency response plans.
The business community needs to be aware of the risks of avian flu and needs more information on how to prepare for any outbreak in China's cities, said American Chamber of Commerce chairman Emory Williams.
‘SWASTICAR’: Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s close association with Donald Trump has prompted opponents to brand him a ‘Nazi’ and resulted in a dramatic drop in sales Demonstrators descended on Tesla Inc dealerships across the US, and in Europe and Canada on Saturday to protest company chief Elon Musk, who has amassed extraordinary power as a top adviser to US President Donald Trump. Waving signs with messages such as “Musk is stealing our money” and “Reclaim our country,” the protests largely took place peacefully following fiery episodes of vandalism on Tesla vehicles, dealerships and other facilities in recent weeks that US officials have denounced as terrorism. Hundreds rallied on Saturday outside the Tesla dealership in Manhattan. Some blasted Musk, the world’s richest man, while others demanded the shuttering of his
Taiwan’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) last month rose 0.2 percentage points to 54.2, in a second consecutive month of expansion, thanks to front-loading demand intended to avoid potential US tariff hikes, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) said yesterday. While short-term demand appeared robust, uncertainties rose due to US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policy, CIER president Lien Hsien-ming (連賢明) told a news conference in Taipei. Taiwan’s economy this year would be characterized by high-level fluctuations and the volatility would be wilder than most expect, Lien said Demand for electronics, particularly semiconductors, continues to benefit from US technology giants’ effort
ADVERSARIES: The new list includes 11 entities in China and one in Taiwan, which is a local branch of Chinese cloud computing firm Inspur Group The US added dozens of entities to a trade blacklist on Tuesday, the US Department of Commerce said, in part to disrupt Beijing’s artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced computing capabilities. The action affects 80 entities from countries including China, the United Arab Emirates and Iran, with the commerce department citing their “activities contrary to US national security and foreign policy.” Those added to the “entity list” are restricted from obtaining US items and technologies without government authorization. “We will not allow adversaries to exploit American technology to bolster their own militaries and threaten American lives,” US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said. The entities
Minister of Finance Chuang Tsui-yun (莊翠雲) yesterday told lawmakers that she “would not speculate,” but a “response plan” has been prepared in case Taiwan is targeted by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which are to be announced on Wednesday next week. The Trump administration, including US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, has said that much of the proposed reciprocal tariffs would focus on the 15 countries that have the highest trade surpluses with the US. Bessent has referred to those countries as the “dirty 15,” but has not named them. Last year, Taiwan’s US$73.9 billion trade surplus with the US
RSS