Yesterday's 7.6 magnitude quake that originated near the central township of Puli and ripped outward through Nantou and Taichung counties, happened true to a prediction made in January by Taiwan's Center for Seismological Research. Taiwan, the center predicted, was "about to re-enter a period of large-scale earthquake activity." The center went on to say that the possibility of a large quake equal to or stronger than Japan's Kobe quake in 1995 was "very high."
But was yesterday's quake the big one the center predicted?
"This was a big one," said Dr. Shannon Lee, a professor at National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, "just not the big one we were -- and still are -- expecting."
Lee, who specializes in reinforcing buildings to better stand the impact of a major earthquake, is also a long-time proponent of strengthening building regulations to answer this need.
"In terms of Taiwan's seismological history, this quake surprised a lot of people," said Lee. "Nobody was predicting a large quake with an epicenter in Puli." Rather, Lee said, most seismologists and scientists had predicted that the next large earthquake, or "big one," would likely strike along well-known fault lines located in Miaoli and Chiayi counties.
Lee speaks for most of the scientific community when he says that just because people in Miaoli and Chiayi were spared the disastrous consequences of being at the epicenter of yesterday's quake, the second largest in Taiwan history, it doesn't mean that they are off the hook.
"Unfortunately, in terms of nature's seismological timeline, these fault lines are still due for a big break," said Lee.
The Miaoli fault snapped in 1935 resulting in a 7.1 quake that killed 3,000 people. The Chiayi fault last shifted in 1941 and was also a 7.1, but only around 300 people died.
"If we follow the rules of science and nature," according to Lee, both of these faults are still due for another seven-plus Richter-scale shake even taking into account yesterday's large quake.
Still, according to Lee and his colleagues, despite the tragedy and destruction, there can be a positive side to a big quake. "My job is to prepare buildings for earthquakes, but most of the time my colleagues and I feel like we are shouting at the deaf," Lee lamented yesterday, after touring the collapsed Sungshan Hotel on Pateh Road in Taipei.
"Before a big quake hits, most people either don't understand what we are talking about or they just don't care." But Lee said that after a big quake like yesterday's, the government and the people change their tune.
"We have their undivided attention," he said.
It's times like right now, Lee added, that tremendous gains can be made in obtaining much-needed government assistance in preparing Taiwan for the ever-present threat of future quakes.
Structural engineer Dr K.C. Tsai has described his job as a race against time. Tsai works at Taiwan's National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering and has long argued that the government should heed the warnings of the scientific community and move to pass laws that require building owners to improve their structures. Tsai says it is a pity that it takes a big quake to prompt government action in improving Taiwan's building codes and standards.
"We recently presented a budget plan to the Ministry of the Interior (MOI) that would allow them to strengthen and improve the foundations and structures of all government buildings in Taiwan," Lee said.
"Hopefully this quake will prompt the government to move quickly to make these improvements a reality, not only to their own buildings, but to all structures in Taiwan."
In Taipei, where according to Tsai, the structural integrity of thousands of buildings is in doubt, the drive to strengthen building foundations is still very much a race against time.
"Most people are very pleased with how Taipei held up to the quake," says Roan Ching-yuen, a local architect. "There was limited destruction among Taipei's buildings and builders should be happy that, for the most part, their buildings performed well."
But Lee attributes the safety of Taipei's buildings to the fact that the quake was so far away.
"Taiwan is so active seismologically," he said, "that a quake can happen anywhere at anytime. Yesterday's quake in Puli is proof enough of that."
For Lee, who will travel to Nantou to check building foundations near the quake's epicenter, most evidence of the quake's destructive power is probably still to come.
"I would hate to see what a quake this size would do if it struck in downtown Taipei -- that's why, now, just as ever, we need to keep vigilant and be prepared," he said.
SEA WARNING LIKELY: The storm, named Gaemi, could become a moderate typhoon on Wednesday or Thursday, with the Taipei City Government preparing for flooding A tropical depression east of the Philippines developed into a tropical storm named Gaemi at 2pm yesterday, and was moving toward eastern Taiwan, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. Gaemi could begin to affect Taiwan proper on Tuesday, lasting until Friday, and could develop into a moderate typhoon on Wednesday or Thursday, it said. A sea warning for Gaemi could be issued as early as Tuesday morning, it added. Gaemi, the third tropical storm in the Pacific Ocean this typhoon season, is projected to begin moving northwest today, and be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday, the agency said. Today, there would likely
CHIPS AND DEFENSE: Trump said the US had lost its chip business and Taipei should pay it for defense, and added that ‘we’re no different than an insurance company’ Taiwan-US relations are solid, and both sides are in agreement that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific region are everyone’s concern, Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) said yesterday following comments by former US president Donald Trump that Taiwan “should pay” for US defense. Taiwan is thankful to the US for supporting Taiwan’s bid to participate in international organizations, Cho told a news conference in Taipei. “I know the people very well, respect them greatly. They did take about 100 percent of our chip business,” Trump told Bloomberg on June 25 in an interview that was published on Tuesday. “I think
SHOW OF SUPPORT: Taiwan has been one of the largest buyers of US defense equipment, supporting American businesses and jobs, US lawmakers said Taiwan has been paying for its own defense, a US Department of State official said on Wednesday, adding that purchases of military equipment are important to the US economy and for ensuring regional security. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller was asked at a news conference about comments by former US president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee in November’s US presidential election, who said during an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek that Taiwan should pay Washington for its defense needs. “The purchases that they [Taiwan] have made not only are important, we believe, to regional security, but are important to the United States economy,”
END OF SESSION: Other changes that passed involved the removal of restrictions on group tours to China and raising the sentence for people found guilty of child abuse Legislators yesterday passed the third reading of amendments to Article 49 of the Electricity Act (電業法), which stipulate that at least half of the electricity price evaluation committee should be made up of civilian representatives, and a resolution to invite President William Lai (賴清德) to present a state of the nation address at the Legislative Yuan. They also passed a motion proposed by the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) that the government remove restrictions on group tours to China. On the last day of this year’s first legislative session, the legislators attempted to deal with dozens of bills